Awards Season Will Suck Hard
With the WGA on strike, and the SAG boycotting the Golden Globes, Hollywood awards season will not be up to snuff this year -- unfortunate, as there were several really fantastic movies released this year, and several potential upsets in the cards for some big names.
You don't need to see all the movies to predict the winners and the upsets. You just need to read a lot of industry news and gossip. I've found that seeing all the movies can skew your judgment, actually, since Hollywood has the same power politics as the rest of the world, so the best doesn't always win. With that in mind, here are my predictions for the Golden Globes, and some of my alway-witty commentary for your edification.
1. BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
1. AMERICAN GANGSTER
Imagine Entertainment/Scott Free Productions; Universal Pictures
2. ATONEMENT
Working Title Films Limited; Focus Features
3. EASTERN PROMISES
Kudos Pictures/Serendipity Point Films; Focus Features
4. THE GREAT DEBATERS
Harpo Films; The Weinstein Company/MGM
5. MICHAEL CLAYTON
Samuels Media and Castle Rock Entertainment a Mirage Enterprises/Section 8 Production; Warner Bros. Pictures
6. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production; Miramax Films/Paramount Vantage
7. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
A Joanne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production; Paramount Vantage/Miramax Films
This is a tough category to call, in part because the HFPA couldn't decide on the normal five nominees. I mean, seven movies? What the hell? And that's just the drama category. I would be happy to see Eastern Promises, Atonement, No Country For Old Men or There Will Be Blood win. Michael Clayton is a total "meh," and American Gangster and The Great Debaters shouldn't even be there. See, HFPA? I've already managed to scale back to five, and I've only seen two of the movies!
Anyway, my personal favourite is Atonement, but Eastern Promises is really fucking close. I think that There Will Be Blood will take it, though, in part because it's overdue for P.T. Anderson, and because the buzz is still so recent and hot.
2. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
1. CATE BLANCHETT – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
2. JULIE CHRISTIE – AWAY FROM HER
3. JODIE FOSTER – THE BRAVE ONE
4. ANGELINA JOLIE – A MIGHTY HEART
5. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY – ATONEMENT
I really enjoyed Keira Knightley in Atonement, but Saoirse Ronan, playing young Briony Tallis, really deserves the supporting actress nod and I don't think both of them will grab awards this year. Cate is well overdue, esp. for her original portrayal of Elizabeth, and the press loves her, so she may just get away with it this year despite poor reviews of the movie. Angelina has buzz, but bio acting is a tricky field, esp. when the person you're playing isn't famous. Can't say much about Foster or Christie -- I love Julie Christie but she's not really on the radar these days, and the Jodie Foster nom seems like standard Hollywood lip-service to a consistent actor. It's tight, but I'll put Jolie and Blanchett neck-in-neck, and call Jolie as the final win.
3. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
1. GEORGE CLOONEY – MICHAEL CLAYTON
2. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
3. JAMES MCAVOY – ATONEMENT
4. VIGGO MORTENSEN – EASTERN PROMISES
5. DENZEL WASHINGTON – AMERICAN GANGSTER
Denzel just needs to GTFO, Clooney will never win a leading award, Day-Lewis is more Oscar than GG, and Viggo is too foreign. I'm skewed by hot love for McAvoy, but I think he'll grab it this year after being woefully overlooked for Last King of Scotland last year.
4. BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
Revolution Studios; Sony Pictures Releasing
2. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Universal Pictures/Relativity Media/Participant Productions/Playtone; Universal Pictures
3. HAIRSPRAY
Zadan/Meron Productions / New Line Cinema in association with Ingenious Film Partners; New Line Cinema
4. JUNO
Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production; Fox Searchlight Pictures
5. SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
Parkes/MacDonald and Zanuck Company; DreamWorks/Paramount Distribution / Warner Bros. Pictures
I hate to say it, but Hairspray could snag this one, as it's a total musical circle jerk. Juno is the ultimate underdog -- it could snag it, but only if it doesn't win a screenplay award. Sweeney Todd may be too bloody for this category, and Across the Universe may be too under-reviewed. Charlie Wilson's War will probably take it home, sadly.
5.BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. AMY ADAMS – ENCHANTED
2. NIKKI BLONSKY – HAIRSPRAY
3. HELENA BONHAM CARTER – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
4. MARION COTILLARD – LA VIE EN ROSE
5. ELLEN PAGE – JUNO
Amy Adams. Nuff said.
6. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. JOHNNY DEPP – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
2. RYAN GOSLING – LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
3. TOM HANKS – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
4. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – THE SAVAGES
5. JOHN C. REILLY – WALK HARD: THE DEWEY COX STORY
Wouldn't it be great if Dewey Cox took it home? And have you ever thought about how gross that name actually is? Moist Dick -- yum! but I think this may be Depp's year.
7. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. BEE MOVIE
DreamWorks Animation; DreamWorks Animation
2. RATATOUILLE
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures; Pixar Animation Studios
3. THE SIMPSONS MOVIE
Gracie Films; Twentieth Century Fox
The Simpsons Movie? Are you fucking kidding me? Ratatouille will take this category, although the HFPA and the MPAA need to realize that animated no longer means children's flick. Remember A Scanner Darkly? Waking Life? What about Persepolis this year? Get on it folks -- cartoons aren't just for kids.
8. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS AND 2 DAYS (ROMANIA)
Mobra Films; IFC Films
2. THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY (FRANCE AND USA)
A Kennedy/Marshall Company and Jon Kilik Production; Miramax Films
3. THE KITE RUNNER (USA)
DreamWorks Pictures Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Paramount Classics Participant Productions Present a Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Parkes/Macdonald Production Distributed by Paramount Classics
4. LUST, CAUTION (TAIWAN)
Mr. Yee Productions LLC; Focus Features
5. PERSEPOLIS (FRANCE)
247 Films; Sony Pictures Classics
Kite Runner is supposed to suck it so scratch that suckah out. 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days may just cross the line into too controversial (it's about abortion and Communism). Lust, Caution, Persepolis and The Diving Bell and The Butterfly all have real chances. Recent reviews put The Diving Bell in top place, so that's my call.
9. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
1. CATE BLANCHETT – I’M NOT THERE
2. JULIA ROBERTS – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
3. SAOIRSE RONAN –ATONEMENT
4. AMY RYAN – GONE BABY GONE
5. TILDA SWINTON – MICHAEL CLAYTON
If Saoirse Ronan doesn't win this, there is no justice in this world.
10. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
1. CASEY AFFLECK – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
2. JAVIER BARDEM –NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
4. JOHN TRAVOLTA – HAIRSPRAY
5. TOM WILKINSON – MICHAEL CLAYTON
Favourites are probably Javier Bardem and Tom Wilkinson. Let's call it a draw and go with Bardem.
11. BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
1. TIM BURTON – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
2. ETHAN COEN & JOEL COEN – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. JULIAN SCHNABEL – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
4. RIDLEY SCOTT – AMERICAN GANGSTER
5. JOE WRIGHT – ATONEMENT
Joe Wright still seems a bit young to get a best director nod, but he certainly deserves it. His work is subtle and perfect in scale. Tim Burton isn't a write-off here -- pulling off a dark musical may sneak him into the lead. The Coen brothers were overdue for a great flick, and they may just swing an award this year. Almost too close to call, but I'll say brothers FTW.
12. BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
1. DIABLO CODY – JUNO
2. ETHAN COEN & JOEL COEN – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON – ATONEMENT
4. RONALD HARWOOD – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
5. AARON SORKIN – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
I dislike this category because unlike the Oscar's there's no distinction made between original and adapted screenplay. Adapting from a novel or memoir and writing an original screenplay are two very different things. I would love to see something quirky and clever like Juno win, but I think The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has a good chance here as well. I loved the adaptation of Atonement, but people may not realize how unfilmable the novel actually seemed and may overlook it as a result. Argh. Still, I'll give some love to Atonement and cross my fingers.
13. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
1. MICHAEL BROOK with KAKI KING and EDDIE VEDDER – INTO THE WILD
2. CLINT EASTWOOD – GRACE IS GONE
3. ALBERTO IGLESIAS – THE KITE RUNNER
4. DARIO MARIANELLI – ATONEMENT
5. HOWARD SHORE – EASTERN PROMISES
Atonement!!!! But I'll admit I'm utterly biased in this category.
14. BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
1. "DESPEDIDA" – LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Music by: Shakira and Antonio Pinto
Lyrics by: Shakira
2. "GRACE IS GONE" – GRACE IS GONE
Music by: Clint Eastwood
Lyrics by: Carole Bayer Sager
3. "GUARANTEED" – INTO THE WILD
Music & Lyrics by: Eddie Vedder
4. "THAT’S HOW YOU KNOW" – ENCHANTED
Music By: Alan Menken
Lyrics By: Stephen Schwartz
5. "WALK HARD" – WALK HARD: THE DEWEY COX STORY
Music & Lyrics by: Marshall Crenshaw, John C. Reilly, Judd Apatow and Jake Kasdan
I really want Walk Hard to win, because it does such a great job of taking the piss out of music and bio-pic cliches. And since the GGs have a sense of humour, it might just do it. Otherwise I'd guess Alan Menken will be getting another trophy for his case.
The rest of the awards are TV related and I'm just a movie-gossip hound, so I'll leave off here. If you agree or disagree, leave a comment. I reserve the right to change my predictions at any point.